If political scientists couldn’t predict the downfall of the Soviet Union—perhaps the most important event in the latter half of the twentieth century—then what exactly were they good for?
Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
Power Doing Deserve
If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.
You Forecast Think
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
Else Wrong Predictions
A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.
I'm a pro-horserace guy.
We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
Google Gallup Beats
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.
Heart Too Like
If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
Yourself Keeping Boring